News Summary
Gas prices in California are expected to rise dramatically by the end of 2026, with estimates suggesting an increase of up to 75% due to refinery closures. Recent reports indicate that losing key refineries could severely diminish the state’s refining capacity, leading to worsening prices at the pump. Currently, average gas prices in San Diego are $4.791 per gallon, fluctuating amid rising trends. Lawmakers are urging action to prevent these closures and alleviate impending costs for consumers.
San Diego, California – Gas prices in California are projected to surge significantly by the end of 2026, with estimates indicating an increase of up to 75% due to refinery closures. A report from USC’s Marshall School of Business highlights that closing key refineries could drastically reduce the state’s refining capacity, leading to gas prices skyrocketing in the coming years.
Currently, the average price for a gallon of self-serve regular gas in San Diego County has reached $4.791, marking a third consecutive day of increases. This price reflects a rise of 5.3 cents compared to last week. However, it is 8.6 cents lower than a month ago and 49 cents lower compared to the price one year ago. While current prices are substantially below the record high of $6.434 set on October 5, 2022, the trajectory suggests troubling times ahead for consumers.
The national gas price average stands at $3.139, having decreased for the eighth time in nine days, with a drop of 3.1 cents from last week. Compared to a month ago, this represents a reduction of 8.3 cents, and it is down 49.7 cents from last year. Despite these national trends, California gas prices remain exceptionally high due to various state-specific factors.
Projected Increases Linked to Refinery Closures
The impending closure of the Phillips 66 refinery in Los Angeles in October and the Valero’s Benicia refinery next April is expected to lead to a 21% reduction in California’s refining capacity over three years. This shrinkage in capacity is predicted to create a substantial gasoline deficit, estimated at between 6.6 million and 13.1 million gallons daily, while Californians consume over 13.1 million gallons of gasoline each day.
If current trends persist, experts warn that the average price for regular gas in California could increase to a staggering between $7.348 and $8.435 per gallon by 2026. State lawmakers have raised alarms over these developments and are urging Governor Gavin Newsom to take proactive measures to prevent refinery closures and combat the rising prices at the pump.
Government Response and Regulatory Concerns
Governor Newsom’s office has publicly disputed the USC report’s findings, emphasizing ongoing efforts to maintain a steady supply of gasoline for California drivers. Recently, Newsom directed the California Energy Commission to enhance cooperation with refiners to mitigate potential shortages.
California presently imposes the highest gas tax in the nation, totaling nearly 60 cents per gallon. This, combined with regulatory policies affecting refinery operations, has drawn concerns from state Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones. Experts have cautioned that rising demand and fears of supply shortages during warmer months could exacerbate price increases, bringing additional strain to consumers.
The USC study reflects a consensus that multiple factors—including legislative impacts and supply-demand dynamics—could significantly affect future gas prices. Although the state administration claims successes in controlling price spikes since the introduction of a gas price gouging law, the situation remains precarious for Californian consumers as potential gas price surges loom on the horizon.
As discussions continue surrounding the potential closures of key refineries, state officials and consumers alike remain vigilant, bracing for what could be a challenging future for gasoline prices in California.
Deeper Dive: News & Info About This Topic
HERE Resources
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Additional Resources
- Fox 5 San Diego
- Wikipedia
- NBC San Diego
- Google Search: California gas prices
- KTLA
- Encyclopedia Britannica: Gas Prices
- Stacker
- Google News: California gas refineries
- First Tracks Online
- MSN Money
- Newsweek
